Alternative Finance

This site is dedicated to alternative finance and strategies that are meant to outperform the S&P 500, provide uncorrelated returns, and review esoteric areas of finance.

Normally, I detest most blogs. Honestly, if I was someone else, I would probably detest this one. Blogs, which can be great, but they can also be self-indulgent and predictable. I have friends that blog and when I receive an email that they have a new posting, it often goes straight to a Junk folder, where I either read it later or promptly delete it and am infuriated by the idea that someone has written something that I (or anyone else) would find remotely interesting or would take the time to read. I don't expect any different treatment of mine so harsh criticism or general apathy will be allowed (if not expected). I do regularly read some blogs and will try to keep this informative and well-written.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

It's Pete's world, we just live in it...

Morgan Stanley’s Quant prop trading outfit is titled Process Driven Trading.  PDT (soon to be PDT Advisors) is being spun out of the firm by the end of 2012 due to the Volcker Rule.  Peter Muller is not a really well-known name in finance outside of Wall Street’s quant community.  He graduated from Princeton in Mathematics in 1985, worked at BARRA in Berkeley for 7 years where he developed an alpha model, and has since been at Morgan Stanley’s PDT, which he started.  It is estimated that he and his small group has pulled $4 billion in profits, after a 20% haircut for the group, over the past 20 years.  Pete was also smart enough to figure out his models weren’t working in August 2007 and pulled the plug early to limit losses.  This ability to recognize that a model is just a model, prevents Pete from being the brunt of the old quant joke:  “Well how is your fund doing?” To which the other quant says, “We were just killing it before that 27 standard deviation day.” 

I do no know what his strategies entail, but I can only guess that he uses or has used some factor based models in coupling with an optimization algorithm.  Perhaps some sort of CVaR Portfolio Optimization with constraints in real-time? 

Pete is also an accomplished musician, surfer, poker player, and philanthropist.  See this url: http://www.mathforamerica.org .  Hope to meet him someday and grab a drink, jam, or catch nice overhead, glassy swell off a right point break.  Also curious to know what he uses for alpha-generation, but I doubt I will get that out of him.

Gatheral's Stochastic Volatility Inspired (SVI) approach to model vol skews

Recently, I took a financial modeling class with some fellow students at the University of Minnesota.  We worked on modeling the volatility surface of commodity and SPX options (which I used to trade many moons ago).  Jim Gatheral, in his book The Volatility Surface, uses the following parametric model for the skew:
 Gatheral then uses an objective function minimization process compared to the implied vol given by Black-Scholes:
The resulting skew/surface (3D in time) looks like this:
  This is extremely useful in pricing exotics, variance swaps, and trading illiquid vanilla options.

Many thanks to Chris Prouty, Cargill Risk Mngmt Trader (mentor and friend) and fellow classmates (A. Abraham, F. Yang, F. Wan, S. Chiu, S. Bhimireddy, and Y. Li). 
for more info see:
https://sites.google.com/site/fmmodeling11/?pli=1